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chalkdust
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Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:08 pm

I've been selling little bits and pocketing $ since the fudge show a few months ago, but held onto about half of my original sum. Let go of about two thirds today when it hit $70 and will just sit on my last little bit to see what happens next. Good times!
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chalkdust
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Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:11 pm

also gotta give props to my dude Zack Morris on Twitta. AMC's not the only stock he's pimped that I've made some nice bank on :rock:
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bubbie
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Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:52 pm

Well done, mate.

The next one will be CLNE starting tomorrow, “if all goes well”.
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mr_rugby
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Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:07 pm

bubbie wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:52 pm
Well done, mate.

The next one will be CLNE starting tomorrow, “if all goes well”.
Tell me why I should buy 350 shares
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Codeblue
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Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:00 pm

Where’s cktbreaker?! Did he need to take another mental break from trading?
RupertPupkin wrote:I live by this rule and this rule alone: people are drymounting idiots.
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jpfondu
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:01 am

Made a few bucks on the IPOE merger with SOFI over the past couple of weeks. Could be one to watch moving forward
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bubbie
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:38 am

mr_rugby wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:07 pm
bubbie wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:52 pm
Well done, mate.

The next one will be CLNE starting tomorrow, “if all goes well”.
Tell me why I should buy 350 shares
Sorry, saw too late. I wouldn’t fomo in, personally. Will try to write up tomorrow with more details.
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bubbie
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:54 am

Not sure if it is beginning or if that is all the apes got on CLNE. Would be nice to know.
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bubbie
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:59 pm

mr_rugby wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:07 pm
bubbie wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:52 pm
Well done, mate.

The next one will be CLNE starting tomorrow, “if all goes well”.
Tell me why I should buy 350 shares
It’s definitely not a certainty by a long shot, but here is my thought process.

I have been watching this ticker for a while. Mostly interested in options rather than shares. It has been beaten since about February (or March? Don’t recall, but whatever; likely coincided with NIO’s top, more or less). At first, perhaps, fairly so, but it doesn’t deserve to be where it is today, in my opinion. I really don’t see a better “green” play out there today. The constraint being is quite a bit of capital is required to get them where they are heading (will talk about it below). Anyway, I have been watching options for a while, made a few bucks. Eventually, the stock seemed to have bottomed out at $7.50-ish (from memory) and has been pretty flat since. Well, flat isn’t really good for options, the premiums start drying up and that is exactly what happened here. The premiums on any calls with a strike higher than $10 went to pretty much oblivion. I watched for a couple of days, then took advantage and started placing limit buy orders for $11- to $13-strike calls (June 18 expiration), 100 calls per order, bids of $0.1, then $0.05 or less. I would then place an order to sell them first at $0.15, then $0.1, respectively (essentially, I was paying 10 bucks per call and selling them for $15; then buying for 5 bucks and selling for $10). It worked great for a couple of weeks. To illustrate (with $13-strike calls) what I was doing:

Image

My last $13-strike order that got filled at $0.5 (was fully filled too, lol) never sold until yesterday. All but 11 calls were sold at $10 per in one batch.

If you read some of my posts here, you may have noticed that I think volume is a crucial component of price movement. Well, here it’s been dying slowly since when it hit the top in February (?), with a few spikes here and there. Sometime in March, I think, there was an insane increase in open interest too. In particular, the $13-strike calls expiring June 18 skyrocketed to thousands. That number is pretty insane by any measure for a low key ticker such as CLNE. Then there was an agreement with Amazon sometime in April: the stock pumped and dumped and led to an increase in those calls further. Long story short, today that number stands at over 18,000. That’s a lot of drymounting calls (for a single strike) to expire on one day for a stock that averages about 5M in daily volume. Last time I looked, all calls (all strikes) expiring on June 18 equate to roughly daily volume if exercised. Again, that’s a lot of calls.

To get back to yesterday, about 7,500 of these calls traded in about 10 minutes before the bell. That’s a lot, considering lately the volume has been dozens to low hundreds. Weirdly, I put an order to buy 100 of each of the strikes $11, $12, and $13. My bids ranged from $0.05 to $0.15. Non of the orders filled, so I was left with 11 calls I was sitting on that didn’t sell. I went looking for what the drymount is going on and ran into a few posts on reddit talking about these very calls expiring on June 18. One in particular (at wsb) kind of lined up perfectly with the volume at the end of the day. CLNE also went up about 9.5% in the after hours. You saw what happened today. The calls I have left went from being worth ~$5 each to $155 in the AM and about $90 a pop currently. I don’t know if this will keep going or going to be done today, but I will hold on to these options for the time being. Feel dumb for selling the other $89, lol, but that is speaking from the future.

Briefly about the company itself and why I think it is worth more than its current value. Essentially, they run a few hundred (something like 500+ In the US and a few in Canada) natural gas fill stations. A chunk of their gas is the so-called renewable natural gas and they are moving to make this their main revenue stream. If you don’t know, RNG is pretty much bio-methane collected at garbage dumps, cattle farms, our own fudge processing plants, etc. It is then processed/purified and sold as regular natural gas. The reason I think this is a great “green alternative” is because they take methane, which is pretty horrible for the environment, global warming, and all that jazz, and convert it to the less harmful carbon dioxide (via burning it in the engines). The methane is otherwise either collected and stored or simply emits constantly where it cannot be captured. By converting that methane to a usable fuel for public transit, freight trucks, etc, Clean Energy, in turn, cuts into the share of natural gas, a fossil fuel, that would otherwise have to be extracted. RNG is actually rated as a carbon-negative fuel, as it should be. Clean Energy doesn’t have too much competition in the field either. Kind of my thoughts, briefly. The company also signed a bunch of contracts within the last few months ensuring future growth, with entities such as Total, Chevron, City of LA (or San Diego? Or both? The drymount I remember, lol) , Amazon, etc.

Through my digging yesterday, I found that the apes at the ape sub realized that there is a shitload of options about to expire worthless and if they pump the share price to $13+ before the Friday in two weeks, there will be a bit of domino effect because all those contracts will have to be filled or bought out and they can make some tendies. Which isn’t far-fetched of a scenario.

So, while I do think there is a good play here long-term, these apes may accelerate the process and the stock will fly. Not sure if enough apes will buy in though because AMC, GME and other garbage.

There is also a shitload of risk involved though and why I never played shares myself yet. One being Total (the largest shareholder) has been unloading their shares at about 100K+ per day. They have about 45M shares to go, but I don’t see them dumping the motherload. On a plus side, there are a few institutions/funds that have been gladly buying those very shares Total is unloading (including Vanguard, Blackrock, etc). Number two is Amazon can dump their shares they received when they signed their deal, at $13.49 (if I recall correctly). They have about the same quantity as Total, but only a small percent had been vested so far. The main risk comes from the company itself. Their projects require a lot of capital. Where does that come from? Well, one way is dilution. They currently have about 20M free shares that can be dumped at any moment. There is also an upcoming shareholder meeting on June 14, I believe, where they are asking shareholders to vote to increase shares outstanding by 150M (if I recall correctly). That’s a lot drymounting shares, lol. Even if shareholders agree to that, it doesn’t mean the company will immediately dilute, but that possibility will always be there and they do state clearly in their proposal that they will need about half a billion (if I recall correctly, I read the proposal a while back) worth of capital for their projects. That hints that they will dilute. So who knows. It is all contingent on that meeting in a couple of weeks here.

Normally, if I were to buy shares, I would wait for the results of that meeting. If the proposal is rejected, I would guess that the stock will gap up the next day and will grow. Otherwise... probably sit where it is at or decline. Now with the apes in the game, who knows hat the drymount is going to happen lol.

Holy fudge, it turned into an essay. Tl/dr, I am not buying in just yet and have no clue what is going to happen. I haven’t checked what the general ape consensus is today. It appears there are a few “smart” people hyping it up on Reddit and elsewhere as well. At least, it’s a real company with real value (in my opinion) this time, lol. So proceed at your own discretion. Maybe see what the reddit consensus is. I do think there is a good possibility it will fly because of the apes. Another catalyst is that there is shitload more contracts to expire... I think in September. My quick “research” yesterday provided that it was those very apes who bought up those contracts too back at that spike in March that I mentioned above (there appears to be a “DD on the ticker on or around that day at the donkey sub).

Edit: so I went and searched the daily thread at the ape sub for CLNE, AMC, BB, and GME (just whatever many posts show up on the phone). The hits were 3, 32, 28, and 4, respectively. I did that three times within a couple of hours and the results were about the same every time (the above numbers are from the last search). So there is that. I haven’t read any of the posts though.
Last edited by bubbie on Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bubbie
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:02 pm

Lol:

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mr_rugby
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Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:47 pm

CLNE up 20% AH sitting at $11.92. I hope you make some serious bank
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mr_rugby
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Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:17 pm

Still holding NIO….lots of NIO :drool:
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mr_rugby
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Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:46 am

Image
Company Achieved Record-High Monthly and Quarterly Deliveries

NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year

NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year

Cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597
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Codeblue
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Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:43 am

This thread is just rugby braggin about his 1 big risky hodl now.
RupertPupkin wrote:I live by this rule and this rule alone: people are drymounting idiots.
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Kdh12
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Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:21 pm

Well since bubbie and cbtbreaker don’t get along anymore….
mmmm Beer :pint:
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