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bubbie
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Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:06 pm

cktbreaker wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:01 pm
The weak hands in GME capitulated. They prob sitting there wondering why it pumped after they sold, now they will fomo buy the impulse up, not take profit, because well moon and get rekt again when price falls and they sell lower.
Lol. 100%.
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mr_rugby
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Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:12 pm

Ouch
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bubbie
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:42 am

I was looking at RCL today. Like with many other companies, how the drymount do people find the value there?

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The CEO was talking about good looking bookings for 2022, which means they are going to be burning cash for another year. What’s going to happen in 2022? Are they going to be making significantly more money all of a sudden to cover the additional debt and buy back the newly issued equity? In all likelihood, no. More likely, they will need more cash before we go back to “normal”, if ever. Why is the valuation so high? What is going to happen when they actually start cruising? Is the stock going to keep climbing with essentially the same company but significantly worse balance sheet and likely (at least for a while) lower revenue stream? What about the inevitable green regulations they will need cash for in probably not so distant future?

Currently, there is a shitload of these “whales” in the market. Many companies I looked at lately are exactly like that. Not sure what the drymount is going on. Travel and entertainment sectors especially (not everything, of course, but a good part of it, in particular those whose success greatly depends on the “pre-covid normal”) are like drymounting air balloons that got away and are way high up in the air, probably higher than one can see from the ground. Is it a part of new normal? And there is more money coming in.
bubbie wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:13 pm
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Tl/dr: I need to find a way to safely short this sucker.
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bubbie
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:25 pm

Any thoughts how far RCL will roll, ck? I bought a couple of nice puts that expire tomorrow (should have bought way more, but no balls, no glory) and now debating if I should take the profit and close or wait.
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bubbie
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:03 pm

^ Probably shouldn’t have, but I sold. Easy (almost) $1,200. Should have invested quite a bit more, but what are you gonna do.
cktbreaker
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:28 pm

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Hey Bubbie, For a long I would look for the 4.618 (green box) because there is more support there, sl is up to you and your level of risk. Could hold at the cluster right here at the 1.618, but for me I buy low sell high, not so much into buying high support and looking for higher. Just added the red line, which would be a nice short entry, even more so if RCL goes to the 2.618 then back to the red line, your stop would be somewhere on the red wick to the top.

My P5E3 motherboard is losing drives and half the memory is not recognized, had to bail on windows and use dual boot to linux as win prob can't handle lack of mem. I'm riding this motherboard to the ground I guess. Now I have to re-educate myself on the comp tech and what I should buy before this thing completely melts down. :cry: :lol:

edit: Uh just re read you're post. So you're short. I did the pull as a short position so the .618's would be profit targets.
Try not to be all out of a trade. Try to think I don't know what's going to happen so, I will... if you're short. I will buy 30 or 50% of my position at whatever level you think, then maybe you move your stop loss to your entry, have profit targets further down already in the books, so now I want to pt at 2.618 then 3.618 after your second pt move your stop loss into profit, so lower than where you shorted. etc.. etc.. So you let your winners run more and protect your position with your stop loss. This way you got a winning trade after first or second pt. No worries, no stress, and just let the trade go.
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bubbie
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:32 pm

^ Haha. Yeh, was an early morning short, which turned out to be just before the dump. I also happened to sell nearly at the peak (1.618 on your graph). The return was ~ 500%. Regretted for not making it 20 puts instead of 2, but... I knew it was due (my post in regards to RCL above), but didn’t have confidence because fudge is crazy out there.

My guess is tomorrow will be more of the same, so I could have potentially really cashed in, but way too much risk (the puts expiring tomorrow). I did buy some cheap puts on NCLH though to “compensate”, lol. Payout is not even remotely close dollar wise, but so is the loss even if I let them expire.

Good luck with the motherboard.

I would usually do more or less what you described in the last paragraph, but it was only 2 puts I had to deal with, so...

Thanks for the input, mate.
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bubbie
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:51 pm

bubbie wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:05 pm
bubbie wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:22 pm
Got some puts on AMC earlier today that I think (actually pretty sure) will make a solid profit. Some doubt because betting against the diamond hands, lol.
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Me:

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Not at all as I expected it to play out, but I will probably be able to cash in somewhat tomorrow (I was in the money before the close). Unless, of course, the diamond hands go full EBer again and loose more money.

Also, everyone expected AMC to report earnings today, but didn’t. My guess is shitty (not that diamond hands are concerned about any of it). Hopefully they will report tomorrow before I sell or my puts expire.
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bubbie
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:17 pm

mr_rugby wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 5:04 pm
Nice little run on NIO today +5.59%. GME part II is underway.
Wasn’t a good day for NIO today. Neither for PLTR that I am bagging.
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mr_rugby
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Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:35 pm

It was a terrible day and I think Friday is going to be just as bad. I think AFRM might be a long play tomorrow especially since they just announced they are releasing their own card. A good entry high 80’s low 90’s. Also CHWY is sitting at $99 AH, I don’t think you will get hurt at that entry point.
cktbreaker
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Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:53 pm

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1hr NIO chart
I wanted NIO to gain the 52.08 like we were talking about the other day, but it decided not to gain so down it went. If it doesn't hold at something above 45.63 I think it goes to the 2.618.
I got one pt on my GOEV trade then stopped out, but the one pt covered my stop loss so I was about break even. Then I entered again at 12.91 will see what happens.
ES needs to gain 3856ish or probably down or I should say achieve it. It has gained but now needs to close above 3856. So wicked above but needs a couple 1hr candles to close above.
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bubbie
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Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:38 pm

^ That didn’t take, lol.

Those AMC puts got drymounted. The force is strong with diamond hands (although the earnings were better than expected, which still doesn’t come close to justifying the current price). To fair, I could have broken even (shy a few bucks), but I truly believed the common sense would prevail. It didn’t. The situation was fixed though because I quickly covered the loss with the $9 and $8 next week’s puts, lol. They also covered the NCLH puts that turned out to be a dud. Closing those RCL shorts was really the best decision I made yesterday.

Other than that a pretty flat day for me. Ended up in the green mainly due to AMD $83 calls I picked up yesterday. Kind of feel silly I didn’t close them today.

Was debating to short CCIV.

Wonder how next week will play out. All signs are pointing to not good, lol.
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bubbie
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Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:55 pm

Forgot to add. Oscar Health IPO is next week. I will be getting in deep, unless the price is totally drymounted by the time it hits the secondary.

Also,

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bubbie
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Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:05 pm

They are probably laughing at all the bag holders:

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Looks like stimulus cheques may be on their way, so there will be another pump. Sell some unreasonably priced calls? I would if I owned 100+ shares.
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bubbie
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Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:45 pm

chalkdust wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:26 pm
grabbed a good amount of AMC at $4 🙂
Are you still holding any of those in any serious quantities?
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