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boatingbenny
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:12 am

optimusGRRR wrote:It's weird, I'm taking a graduate level Global Economics class right now, from a Harvard PhD who regularly appears on MSNBC and she does not think the sky is falling. Thank god for EB, I would have been invested in the S&P 500 over the last year if wasn't for all this key advice.
:roll: MSNBC was full of PHD economists that said the economy was healthy and fine in 2007/2008. Hell, even Bernake (head of the Federal Reserve) said he didn't believe there was a housing bubble. A graduate level class taught by a PHD doesn't mean crap. The handful of people that called the the last crash were just regular Joes. Google Kyle Bass and listen to what he has to say, he doesn't have a PHD but he only made about $5 billion during the last crash by betting against all the PHD's you're referring to.
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finneganm
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:23 am

Kyle Bass is also betting big on a housing recovery these days.
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That's what she said
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boatingbenny
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:41 am

finneganm wrote:Kyle Bass is also betting big on a housing recovery these days.
If he was he wouldn't be saying so. These guys don't show they're hands to the public and if they do they have made their bet long ago just waiting for the sheep to follow or they're on the opposite side. George Soros came out in Davos on CNBC in 2010 and flat out said that he would be a seller of GOLD, well fast forward 3 months later and it was disclosed that his fund largest purchase during those 3 months was GOLD.
IMO housing was a good bet 2 years ago. Not so much anymore...not in the Bay Area that's for sure.
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finneganm
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:45 am

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That's what she said
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fnord
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:57 am

Bitcoin's at $95
DeltaSigChi4 wrote:Don't let these nerds hold you down, playa.

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boatingbenny
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:06 pm

finneganm wrote:http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1 ... bonds.html

He's in the trade in a big way.
That's not a bet on housing. That's a bet on bonds tied to mortgages. He's invested in the top tier tranches meaning that we would have to have a housing crisis just as bad as the last one for him to not get paid. Odd of that happening again in the near future are slim. He's just betting that the mortgage defaults have bottomed. Housing could stay the same or slightly decrease and he'll still get paid.
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finneganm
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:47 pm

I'm not trying to derail here, but that is most certainly a bet on housing. Regardless of where they are in the capital structure, it's a trade that is very levered to HPA growth.

That being said, I completely agree with your comment regarding academic economists. There are quite a few out there with a good head on their shoulders, but I generally only trust ones who have been outside the classroom.
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That's what she said
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optimusGRRR
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:53 pm

unomasmoi wrote:
boatingbenny wrote:
optimusGRRR wrote:It's weird, I'm taking a graduate level Global Economics class right now, from a Harvard PhD who regularly appears on MSNBC and she does not think the sky is falling. Thank god for EB, I would have been invested in the S&P 500 over the last year if wasn't for all this key advice.
A graduate level class taught by a PHD doesn't mean crap.
Couldn't agree with this more.
I agree, these Ivy League Professors are idiots. I just moved all my money into bitcoins and silver bars per everyone's recommendations, feels good to have proper asset managment (finally). Maybe I should allocate some money to Tyler Stout posters? I think I've read that one here few times as a viable retirement strategy, can anyone confirm? I just need three forum experts to confirm it before I buy in 100%.
Last edited by optimusGRRR on Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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boatingbenny
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:57 pm

finneganm wrote:I'm not trying to derail here, but that is most certainly a bet on housing. Regardless of where they are in the capital structure, it's a trade that is very levered to HPA growth.

That being said, I completely agree with your comment regarding academic economists. There are quite a few out there with a good head on their shoulders, but I generally only trust ones who have been outside the classroom.
It's not leverd to growth at all! Housing does not have to grow for him to cash in, housing could decline and he'd still cash in. He bought top tier bonds that are related to people paying their mortgage. That is not a bet on housing. If you want a bet on housing buy home builders, REIT's, or houses (many funds have done this). His bet is bond related, sure it's tied to the housing market but as I said the housing market could stay stagnant for 20 years and he'll still make money as long as the mortgages are being paid.
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maden
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:58 pm

You should have invested in bitcoins.
We'll kill the fatted calf tonight, so stick around

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boatingbenny
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:59 pm

:roll:
optimusGRRR wrote:
unomasmoi wrote:
boatingbenny wrote:
optimusGRRR wrote:It's weird, I'm taking a graduate level Global Economics class right now, from a Harvard PhD who regularly appears on MSNBC and she does not think the sky is falling. Thank god for EB, I would have been invested in the S&P 500 over the last year if wasn't for all this key advice.
A graduate level class taught by a PHD doesn't mean crap.
Couldn't agree with this more.
I agree, these Ivy League Professors are idiots. I just moved all my money into bitcoins and silver bars per everyone's recommendations, feels good to have proper asset managment (finally). Maybe I should allocate some money to Tyler Stout posters? I think I've read that one here few times as a viable retirement strategy, can anyone confirm? I just need three forum experts to confirm it before I buy in 100%.
:roll:
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maden
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:08 pm

fnord wrote:Bitcoin's at $95
Nah, more like $89.9. I can't wait for it to crash back down to $5.
We'll kill the fatted calf tonight, so stick around

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optimusGRRR
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:10 pm

boatingbenny wrote: :roll: MSNBC was full of PHD economists that said the economy was healthy and fine in 2007/2008. Hell, even Bernake (head of the Federal Reserve) said he didn't believe there was a housing bubble. A graduate level class taught by a PHD doesn't mean crap. The handful of people that called the the last crash were just regular Joes. Google Kyle Bass and listen to what he has to say, he doesn't have a PHD but he only made about $5 billion during the last crash by betting against all the PHD's you're referring to.
There's alot wrong with you, but I'll just point out a few of the bigger things. #1 Everyone in finance/economics knew housing prices were inflated; all assets go through expansion/recession cycles, and US housing was clearly peaking. I had a mere BS Finance at the time and knew that housing was overpriced; the hard part of forecasting asset values (when your not a sideline quarterback) is when to call the top/bottom. Anyways, what hardly anyone foresaw, save a few, was the systematic collapse of the financial system as securitized sub-prime mortgages and credit-default swaps exploded, not that housing was overpriced.
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boatingbenny
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:15 pm

optimusGRRR wrote:
boatingbenny wrote: :roll: MSNBC was full of PHD economists that said the economy was healthy and fine in 2007/2008. Hell, even Bernake (head of the Federal Reserve) said he didn't believe there was a housing bubble. A graduate level class taught by a PHD doesn't mean crap. The handful of people that called the the last crash were just regular Joes. Google Kyle Bass and listen to what he has to say, he doesn't have a PHD but he only made about $5 billion during the last crash by betting against all the PHD's you're referring to.
There's alot wrong with you, but I'll just point out a few of the bigger things. #1 Everyone in finance/economics knew housing prices were inflated; all assets go through expansion/recession cycles, and US housing was clearly peaking. I had a mere BS Finance at the time and knew that housing was overpriced; the hard part of forecasting asset values (when your not a sideline quarterback) is when to call the top/bottom. Anyways, what hardly anyone foresaw, save a few, was the systematic collapse of the financial system as securitized sub-prime mortgages and credit-default exploded, not that housing was overpriced.
Easy to say in hindsight. Keep on hitting the book's, make sure to pay close attention to MSNBC and your Ivy League professor... you'll need it.
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fnord
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:22 pm

maden wrote:
fnord wrote:Bitcoin's at $95
Nah, more like $89.9. I can't wait for it to crash back down to $5.
I dont think it will hit $5 for a while. Even if it crashes people will be there to buy at $50, then $20, then $5.
DeltaSigChi4 wrote:Don't let these nerds hold you down, playa.

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