Stock Market Discussion

Talk about art related subjects here. Post lifespan is 1 year.
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:26 am

Does a ~15 point (or whatever it is) change over a few days on a 4,000+ index matter? :)

I wouldn’t call it head and shoulders, either way.
cktbreaker
Art Expert
Posts: 1618
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:44 pm

Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:52 am

But the middle (head) is higher than the two sides (shoulders), but it's not a head and shoulders? Should I short this or long it and at what price? Where should I put stop loss?
Image
Last edited by cktbreaker on Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
cktbreaker
Art Expert
Posts: 1618
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:44 pm

Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:58 am

Bubbie how did that BPY long at monthly resistance work out?
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:28 pm

cktbreaker wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:52 am
But the middle (head) is higher than the two sides (shoulders), but it's not a head and shoulders? Should I short this or long it and at what price? Where should I put stop loss?
Image
I answered that yesterday:
bubbie wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:26 am
Does a ~15 point (or whatever it is) change over a few days on a 4,000+ index matter? :)

cktbreaker wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:58 am
Bubbie how did that BPY long at monthly resistance work out?
Made a cool five dollars and eighty cents so far. Nothing will be coming of it though because it appears they are going private and buyout price is not that exciting (just a bit over the current market). Need to move elsewhere.


Looks like weed had a pretty bad day (I guess it’s at least couple of days now).
cktbreaker
Art Expert
Posts: 1618
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:44 pm

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:35 am

That's not an answer, but that's ok.
User avatar
Kdh12
Art Freak
Posts: 10889
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 12:00 am
Location: Here

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:40 am

bubbie wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:28 pm

Looks like weed had a pretty bad day (I guess it’s at least couple of days now).
I have been thinking the same thing for the last week or so, kinda surprised it isn’t doing better.
mmmm Beer :pint:
cktbreaker
Art Expert
Posts: 1618
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:44 pm

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:43 am

TLRY lets go!!
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:11 am

cktbreaker wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:35 am
That's not an answer, but that's ok.
I don’t get what you are asking. I said previously, this is not a HaS pattern. To begin (and to end, I guess), there is no neckline to draw. You can’t act on it with no neckline, which is another defining feature of the pattern. If there was the pattern and you chose to act on it, you would enter the trade once the neckline (resistance) fails. Some put a stop at the head peak, some at the second shoulder, some in between. I play it on the individual basis and never at the head (I think it is pretty insane risk wise). Also, I don’t usually play it intraday, so the swings are way more significant than a few cents or a couple of dollars and there are usually other levels to tie a stop to that are more defined.

Does this answer the question?

That, by the way, never materialised for NIO either, but it was close, as far as HaS is concerned. Still loose, but a more precise illustration:

Image

The “neckline” was never broken; perhaps, saved by the 200 MA, which is a major support. There were other indicators to make money off the drop though. The chart still looks like fudge, imo. And the volume is once again declining.

I don’t get your questioning of the subject: are you implying that this pattern does not mean anything and is not tradable?

cktbreaker wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:43 am
TLRY lets go!!
Are you break out/resistance trading now?

I was going to buy some after the morning dump (as well as VFF) but didn’t.
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:19 am

Kdh12 wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:40 am
bubbie wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:28 pm

Looks like weed had a pretty bad day (I guess it’s at least couple of days now).
I have been thinking the same thing for the last week or so, kinda surprised it isn’t doing better.
Yeah, I don’t know how it’s going to play out in the short term. I don’t think it will be doing much until there is some kind of process on legalisation. Also, there is a lot already priced in, imo. I am passing for now. Surely money to be made on the swings though.
cktbreaker
Art Expert
Posts: 1618
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:44 pm

Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:30 am

Bubbie, TLRY is not a resistance. You and I are obviously trading the markets in very different ways. Look back at the VFF, RCL, and BPY charts. Def not looking to argue here, it is what it is.

Here's a little TLRY chart. I'm not using any news, or patterns, or moving averages or any of that junk. If you don't understand price action it's going to be hard to know why I am long here. With a stop only risking .8% of my cash, which is important. SL's shouldn't risk more than 1-2% of you avail cash. That's how you win with consistency. And that's why when talking about moving averages, I wasn't saying that's where you put a SL it's the distance from an MA to where support is doesn't add up to a proper stop based off an average. But meh, don't think this is getting thru. From a TA perspective, TLRY is testing previous support and this is a great place to long, If I get stopped I lose .8% of my cash on hand, it's not just some random place to long and place a stop.
Image
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:43 am

I know why you bought TLRY. And I know why it bounced back like it did yesterday. Did it hit your price target or come a tad short (I wasn’t really following)? APHA’s earnings are premarket on Monday. That likely isn’t going to be good for TLRY. I didn’t buy VFF for different reasons.

We do trade differently, which is ok. This is the reason I ask for your opinion and miraculously we often arrive to the same or at least similar conclusions. If we did things the same way, we probably would not be having this discussion. And that is how I see it - a discussion.

You rely heavily on Fibonacci. I do not, but I am aware. You sure seem to think that you have got it right. I think there is more than one way to do things and be successful.

I am not sure if you skipped through it in one (or more than one?) of my previous posts, where I stated moving average is not a place for a stop order (as in I do not put my stops at MA) - I feel like this is not getting through. However, moving average is where support often forms (and strengthens) for no other apparent reason and there is a good chance the existing support you are using is there for this very reason (not saying it is). I actually don’t care much for averages, macd, etc. Call it awareness, I guess, that is sometimes used combined with other things.

People trade the junk you mention all the time. No technical analysis is perfect, including fib. Patterns, combined with support and resistance, volume, etc are a very powerful tool, if you know how to use it. Certain events can indicate if the resistance is likely to be broken or a support to fail. I know I wouldn’t be stating that someone doesn’t understand something (like price action, for example) because they do things differently. I can also assure you that the “pros” use this fudge all the time because I know a few people who do it for living, some working for big boys in the game.

It can be fairly easy to trade the news too. For example, last week (I think it was March 31), I scrolled through my watch lists about 10-15 minutes before close and saw that Microvision was having a run. I checked the news and found that Microsoft won the 20-some billion dollar contract with Pentagon, which was seen by many as MVIS being a huge beneficiary (further quick research showed it isn’t exactly the case). I also saw where the run met its limit and bounced back. With a few minutes left, I bought some puts and made a quick good chunk the next day when I sold them. There are different ways one can take advantage of the news. Jumping on the hype train because the news hit the internet after the stock jumped x% is not one if these ways (which I already discussed in one of my previous posts).

Funny enough, there are plenty of people who say that it is all rubbish: support, resistance, candles, patterns, fibonacci, as well as the rest of the technical side of trading.
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:33 am

bubbie wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:43 am
I know why you bought TLRY. And I know why it bounced back like it did yesterday. Did it hit your price target or come a tad short (I wasn’t really following)? APHA’s earnings are premarket on Monday. That likely isn’t going to be good for TLRY.
Image

Image

And the whole sector, of course.



Edit in the evening:

Trading the news. MarketWatch news popped up on the phone today around 10 (?) in the morning:

Image

I quickly skipped through the article and bought some $81-strike weekly AMD puts at $1.05 per and $67.5-strike weekly INTC puts at $1.02 per. Sold all about 45 minutes before close, AMD at $3.15 and INTC at $2.60. Profit of just under $3,700. Was debating to hold overnight because both AMD and Intel were struggling as it is, but figured that’s more than enough for a few hours of doing nothing (well, working). Probably a good decision too because greed usually drymounts it up, lol.


Banks/funds earnings this week. GS tanked last three times after. Wonder how many were exposed to the hedge fund that melted under the margin call a couple of weeks ago. Some of the big boys who will report this week:

Jp Morgan
Wells Fargo
Goldman Sachs
First Republic Bank
Bank of America
Citi
BlackRock
US Bancorp
Truist
Morgan Stanley
PNC
State Street
Citizens

Among others. End of the week could be interesting. I am anticipating a bit of a melt because look at SPY. To be fair though, I have been for while, lol. Seriously though, SPY is nuts; look at all that green decreasing uninterrupted volume and the slope of the run:

Image

Or maybe it will run some more and then crash harder? Who knows. I might be buying some spy puts tomorrow or Wednesday a couple of/few weeks out. What are your thoughts, ck?

Also interested in Delta’s numbers this week. There was something else I was interested in, but cannot recall at the moment.
User avatar
theperfecttree
EB Team
Posts: 11610
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:04 am
Location: Austin, TX

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:08 pm

Coinbase is having an eventful debut

Image
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:14 am

^ Lol. These are some very heavy bags to hold and there will be plenty of bag holders, imo. The current valuation is insane. Who knows though, it may run tomorrow because why not.

Spy had the first (slightly) red day in about three (?) weeks or something like that. Lol.
User avatar
bubbie
Art Expert
Posts: 7431
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:49 pm
Location: Canada

Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:06 am

Ck, what are your thoughts on BABA? Potential break out there could be quite profitable.

Edit: BABA failed in the morning.
Post Reply