Are you in Finance or IT?jimbobiii wrote:I think this one is going to be interesting and potentially buck the current trends (high prices at drop, cooling off quickly).
Firstly, you've already had 10% of the run sell on the second market at inflated prices, and the lowest price paid each day has gone up each day on the regular. Top that off with only about 24 of these on the bay right now.
Right now:
8 regulars for sale (1.3% of the run) / 59 sold (10.2% of the run)
14 variants for sale (5% of the run) / 25 sold (8.8% of the run)
2 sets for sale / 2 sets sold
We also have a recent Moss example (from a somewhat similar property in terms of popularity/desirability), the Bride:
Currently:
23 for sale (4.7% of the run) / 65 sold (13.5% of the run)
Now, there are many factors at play here. Bride has been available for four weeks, and has been in-hand. This certainly isn't Star Wars, where nearly 20% of the run had flipped in the first five days (80 sales, with prices escalating). In the first 5 days, the Bride only sold about 7.7% of its run and on that 5th day, it recorded a new low. The Bride follows recent patterns.
So the Bride feels a little bit closer to the variant than the regular, but even that doesn't entirely line up.
So why has the regular had a higher velocity? A few ideas:
-Easier to buy (more flippers got them)
-Cheaper (more LOTR fans, who just want one to frame, went for the cheapest ones)
-Regular > Variant from an aesthetic point of view (at least, in the majorities' eyes).
The prices are also interesting, as the variant has seemed pretty stable, while the regular is rising a little bit, or at least having the floor on its prices rise.
The low supply of regulars (will this change with it shipping?), and the fact that prices haven't come down at all since drop day (and have gone up on the regular) do seem to imply that this will not follow the recent trendlines, and that this piece may be one of the view that holds its place and value, or perhaps even goes up. I actually wonder if the regulars drying up here may be what forces the variant prices up, rather than any particular demand for the var.
definitely a fascinating print to watch given the recent trends, the artist, and the subject matter.
Good analysis though. It's helping that there's a new movie out. Also helps that these prints are for the earlier LOTR movies, which most people seem to be preferring over The Hobbit, so there's a bit of nostalgia going on here too.
