Search found 3284 matches

by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: America: The Trump Era
Replies: 17970
Views: 641736

Re: America: The Trump Era

He hasn't done his one great thing yet, which will be when he finally croaks. Most likely with a quarter pounder in one hand, and his phone in the other mid rage tweet. I'm sure Covfefe was a mini-stroke while tweeting on the shitter.
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

In re Bloomberg I hope you are wrong. I'm sure he is a bit of an egotist which is a requirement to run for POTUS and likely prompted his run. If the model is anywhere near 538 and he thinks he can come from a distant 3rd for the nomination he is delusional. Unless it is under 100 the nomination sho...
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

Trump slayer. https://twitter.com/BethLynch2020/status/1234575619016536064 I'm not sure of the makeup of the followers replying, but I did find it surprising to read comments from Pete supporters moving to Bernie. I don't know if that speaks for most of Pete's supporters but if so, or at least a go...
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

I think you are right wrt Bloomberg's money going to Biden over Sanders / Warren. I don't think Bloomberg is trying to force a contested convention as that would favor Trump. If he is still in 3 weeks from now I might be wrong. The 538 model showing no one getting a majority shows Bloomberg and War...
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

Premises underlie those odds and the 538 model. Should one of those premises prove to not be true then the odds shift. Biden outperforming in SC was a factor in the shift upward. The main factor driving the 538 model is all candidates remaining in the race until the end. I believe this is a faulty ...
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

Three dropped BEFORE Super Tuesday. I don't think Steyer or Klobuchar were much of a force. The only real surprise IMO was seeing Pete peace out so early. Obviously the more that drop out the more inclined the remainder are to hold out. I don't seem Biden or Bloomberg going anywhere. Warren? Probab...
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

He was expected to win but not mop the floor with Bernie. Also, at the last debate one of the moderators made a point of saying Bernie was behind but within the margin of error. Some margin of error. Biden performed 8% better than the RCP average. Everyone else, except Warren, performed worse than ...
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

Someone will win. I don't anticipate a contested convention. I think 3-4 would have to stay in to the end for that to happen. I wouldn't be so sure of that. Biden and Bloomberg are in it until the end I expect. Warren likely too IMO. 538 forecasting 65% chance of no majority, 20% for Bernie majorit...
by BlakeAronson
Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

jjttdw wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:59 pm
How about ole Joe destroying Bernie in South Carolina??
Was this not expected by everyone?
by BlakeAronson
Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

Steyer gone. Pete gone (that was an early surprise). Now why is Klobuchar still running?
by BlakeAronson
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:51 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

bubbie wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:58 am
All you did, for the most part, was share your mental illness with all of us.
ftfy
by BlakeAronson
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

That's going to be difficult to do with so many people running I think. Most of them are crossing their fingers for him not reaching the required delegates. With the current forecast leaning towards him not getting quite enough, the rest of these candidates have no reason to drop out before the end....
by BlakeAronson
Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

DNC superdelegates warn they will block Bernie Sanders at convention and spark civil war within party I think this is the guarantee that Trump wins. They're going to disenfranchise a lot of voters if the nomination is given to someone who received far less votes and won far less state primaries/cau...
by BlakeAronson
Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:46 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

Given the fact that all of the candidates are white folks, whoever gets the nomination, including Bernie, needs to pick a hispanic or black person. None of these candidates on their own are particularly appealing to some key constituencies for Dems. If the rules of political logic apply to the Bern...
by BlakeAronson
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 2020 Elections - A New Hope
Replies: 2251
Views: 38866

Re: 2020 Elections - A New Hope

Wonder if he would tap Warren, AOC or one of the freshman squad? Might be a better choice to pick someone more centrist so the rest of the dems stop freaking out.